The world’s weather outlook is facing another major warning after the World Meteorological Organization said the current El Niño event is expected to intensify and continue into at least February 2027.
The United Nations weather agency said there is an almost 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February, while ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach extraordinary levels later this year.
The WMO said the event could become one of the strongest El Niño episodes since records began in 1950.
The development matters because El Niño is not simply a Pacific Ocean phenomenon.
Changes in ocean temperatures can alter atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall, drought, heat and storms across different parts of the world.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern.
It occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than normal.
Those temperature changes influence atmospheric circulation and can alter weather patterns thousands of kilometres away.
The effects vary depending on the region.
Some areas may experience heavier rainfall and flooding, while others can face drought, unusually high temperatures or changes in agricultural conditions.
This El Niño could be unusually powerful
The WMO estimates that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach 3.7°C above normal between October and December.
That would be significantly higher than the previous record of approximately 2.6°C recorded during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño period.
The organisation says the unusually warm ocean is providing an enormous amount of heat energy that can influence the global atmosphere.
The event is therefore being closely monitored by meteorologists, governments, farmers and humanitarian organisations.
Why Africa should pay attention
El Niño can have significant consequences for parts of Africa.
Changes in rainfall patterns can affect agriculture, water availability, food prices and livestock.
Some regions may experience increased rainfall and flooding, while others may face drought.
For countries heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, even relatively small changes in seasonal rainfall can have serious economic consequences.
Farmers may need to adjust planting schedules, while governments may have to prepare for potential food-security pressures.
The exact impact varies by region, which is why meteorological agencies continue to monitor the situation and issue country-specific forecasts.
Global temperatures remain a concern
The El Niño warning comes against a backdrop of exceptionally high global temperatures.
The WMO said global average temperatures in August reached approximately 16.96°C, tying July 2023 for the hottest monthly average in the available record.
That does not mean every location experienced record heat during August.
Instead, it represents the global average across land and ocean surfaces.
The combination of a strong El Niño and an already warm global climate is one reason scientists are paying close attention to the coming months.
Potential effects on agriculture
Agriculture is one of the sectors most vulnerable to major changes in rainfall and temperature.
Drought can reduce crop yields, while excessive rainfall can destroy crops and infrastructure.
Livestock farmers can also be affected when pasture and water supplies decline.
Food-producing countries therefore have strong reasons to monitor El Niño forecasts.
Governments may need to strengthen early-warning systems, prepare emergency food supplies and help farmers adjust to changing conditions.
El Niño and extreme weather
El Niño does not directly cause every extreme weather event.
However, it can change the background conditions that influence weather around the world.
That means certain areas can experience a higher probability of drought, flooding or unusual temperatures during an El Niño year.
The effects can also change as the event develops.
This is why the WMO’s latest forecast will be closely followed through the final months of 2026 and into early 2027.
What happens next?
The WMO expects El Niño to peak around December before gradually weakening.
But its influence may continue for several months afterward.
Governments and communities therefore have a window in which they can prepare for potential weather-related disruptions.
For farmers, businesses and households, the most useful response is not panic but preparation.
Weather forecasts, water management, agricultural planning and early-warning systems can help reduce the impact of extreme conditions.
The latest WMO warning is ultimately a reminder that climate patterns can have consequences far beyond the location where they begin.
As El Niño strengthens, governments across Africa and the rest of the world will be watching rainfall, temperatures and food-production conditions closely.
