African countries could face billions of dollars in economic losses as an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern develops, according to climate officials.
The potential impact could be particularly serious for countries whose economies and food systems depend heavily on agriculture.
The African Development Bank has warned that a strong El Niño could produce combined economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion across affected African countries.
Why El Niño Matters
El Niño is a climate pattern involving unusual warming of surface waters in parts of the Pacific Ocean.
Although the phenomenon originates thousands of kilometres from Africa, it can influence weather patterns across different parts of the world.
Its effects can include changes in rainfall, temperature and drought conditions.
For African countries, these changes can have major consequences because millions of people depend on rain-fed agriculture.
Food Prices Could Become a Major Concern
Poor rainfall can reduce agricultural production, particularly where farmers have limited access to irrigation.
A weaker harvest can subsequently affect food availability and prices.
The consequences can extend beyond rural communities.
Higher food prices can increase household expenses in cities, while governments may face additional pressure to provide support to vulnerable populations.
Africa’s Climate Vulnerability
The potential economic impact also highlights a broader issue.
Many African economies contribute relatively little to global greenhouse-gas emissions compared with major industrial economies, yet several African countries remain highly vulnerable to extreme weather and climate-related disruptions.
Droughts, floods and heatwaves can damage infrastructure, reduce agricultural output and increase pressure on already limited public resources.
Preparing for the Next Shock
Experts have increasingly stressed the importance of early-warning systems, irrigation, climate-resilient agriculture and improved disaster preparedness.
For countries heavily dependent on agriculture, preparation before extreme weather arrives can make a significant difference.
As the latest El Niño develops, governments across Africa will be watching rainfall patterns closely and assessing the potential consequences for food production and economic stability.
